11/29/2023 0 Comments Can i trust photosweeper![]() ![]() Persistent order weakness is weighing on prices for inputs, resulting in goods disinflation that is helping to dampen price pressures in the economy. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 47.3 in July, the highest reading since October 2022, from 45.6 in June. Machinery makers said "suppliers are starting to reach out looking for new business." Miscellaneous manufacturers reported that "sales remain higher than forecast," but also noted that "supplier capacity issues remain." Transportation equipment makers said "demand is softening." Manufacturers of fabricated metal products reported "stable demand for the next four to six months, but longer-term uncertainty." Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only petroleum and coal products reported growth. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 46.8. It was the ninth straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said in a separate report that its manufacturing PMI edged up to 46.4 last month from 46.0 in June, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. While the labor market remains defiant, higher borrowing costs are hurting manufacturing, though factory activity appears to have stabilized at weaker levels in July. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. "This is important, as wages tend to be correlated with the quits rate, with a six-month lag, and the Fed needs wage growth to slow if it is to end its rate hiking campaign," said Matthew Martin, U.S. As a result, the quits rate, viewed as a measure of labor market confidence, fell to 2.4% from 2.6% in May. Resignations dropped 295,000 to 3.772 million. Workers are showing less appetite to seek greener pastures. ![]() Layoffs and discharges fell 19,000 to 1.527 million. The decline in hiring was concentrated in durable goods manufacturing as well as finance and insurance. That lowered the hires rate to 3.8%, the lowest since the first wave of the pandemic, from 4.0% in May. Hiring dropped 326,000 to 5.905 million, the lowest level since February 2021. Many economists do not anticipate further hikes in the current tightening cycle, though much will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data. ![]()
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